Survivor Philippines has just begun and one castaway has already found their torch snuffed.  In last weeks episode the group was divided into three tribes: Tangdang, Kalabaw and Matsing.  Each of these tribes given a past contestant who was forced to leave the game due to medical conditions: Mike Skupin, Jonathan Penner and Russell Swan.
In this first episode Tangdang seemed to get off to a very good start.  They worked well together at camp and almost came in first in the immunity challenge.  The new players all seem to really admire Mike and the young group of RC, Pete and Abi-Maria reached out to him hoping to form an alliance.  While this happened Mike really wanted to form an alliance with teen movie star Lisa Welchel.
The fact that Lisa is on this season is actually interesting to me.  Although I have never heard of her in my life and the fact that only a couple castaways know who she is is quite interesting.  She seems like a good fit for the show to play the older woman on the tribe.  In my opinion I can see her going very far in the game.  Not only because she has been promoted for being on the show this last month but because she has a very trusting personality and seems to be weaker in the challenges that others will see her to be the perfect person to bring to the end with them.  My bet is that she will wow the viewers and make it deep into the game with Mike.
Kalabaw in my opinion was rather boring on the first episode.  The only players that seemed to do anything were Penner, Dawson and former MLB player Jeff Kent.  Penner was predictable and searched for the hidden immunity idol almost immediately.  He was never able to actually find it but Dawson was the one to catch on to the fact that Jeff is a former MLB player.  Instead of doing what most would do, she decided to keep this important information in her back pocket incase she may need to make a deal with Jeff or turn everybody else against him.

Matsing was the entertaining tribe of this episode.  Russell right of the bat said he did not want to be the leader of the tribe but two minutes later he starts telling everybody what to do. This left both the viewers and the other castaways confused.  Russell, if you don't want to be the leader then shut up!  Later on he still could not keep his mouth shut when he told everybody what to do in the challenge.  Stupidly, after Angie tells him she sucks at puzzles he makes her in charge of the puzzle.  After Zane admits to quitting smoking the day before coming out here, Russell puts him in charge of the running portion.  Then he puts the older woman of the tribe, Denise, in charge of pulling out a 200 lbs. box out of the ocean!  Where the heck is Russell's logic?  Did he lose that when he almost died in Samoa?  Due to Russell's dumb decisions, his tribe didn't even come close to winning.
At camp that day, Denise and Malcolm formed a strong alliance that seems unshifting.  Zane also made an alliance with every single player on his tribe.  I know stupid right?  Maybe Russell is not the dumbest guy on his tribe.  After asking his tribe to vote him off, Zane tried to persuade the group to blindside Russell.  Seems very smart at the moment until he tells them that Russell has the idol (which he doesn't).

At tribal that night, out of paranoia Zane finds himself becoming the first person voted out this season 5-1.
Now for my thoughts that are going to happen next!
Rumors have said that the WHOLE Tangdang tribe will make it to the merge!
For Kalabaw, I'm feeling Penner will become the leader of his tribe along with Jeff Kent by his side.  They will most likely favor Carter for being the other guy so first boot from Kalabaw will be either Katie, Dana or Dawson.  Dawson seems like a very strong strategist though which Penner might see either as dangerous or helpful for later on.

Matsing NEEDS to pull their act together.  My advice is to next time get rid of Russell!  The Angie, Roxy and Denise need to take lead from Malcolm and they might be able to make it to the merge as a group of four.  Unfortunately though they are clearly the weakest tribe and my guess is Malcolm and Denise will stick together.  It then becomes a competition between Angie and Roxy to see which gets closest with them two.  From what I have heard sounds like Angie will figure that out in episode two.  Apparently Angie makes moves on Malcolm!  Can't wait to see!

All Women Final Five

Once again Survivor: One World has held another Survivor first.  Five women have made it to the end together: Alicia, Kim, Chelsea, Christina and Sabrina.

In these last few episode we have seen all the men go down along with Kat who was betrayed by her alliance with the women.  It is very rare a women's alliance is this successful the only other time this has happened was in Micronesia when Parvati lead a women's alliance to the final four.  This time though, Kim has lead five to the end.

Although Kim is not a major flirt like Parvati was, Kim had the ability to make anyone believe her giving her control of practically this entire season.  Now that there is only five left and the girls see who strong Kim has been, she has a target on her back.


Her alliance within the women's alliance consists of Sabrina and Chelsea who she promised to go to the end with.  Lately though, Kim has begun to second guess that choice she made.  She sees that Sabrina has the power to persuade people and has a very charismatic personality.  This means it wouldn't take much out of Sabrina to beat out someone who has lied to everyone on the jury like Kim.  Now Kim sees Christina and Alicia as two women who would be easy to defeat in the end.  Alicia has pretty much openly been a bitch to everyone even her partner Christina, then Christina has pretty much done close to nothing in the game but almost let Troy vote her off.  In other words, neither deserves to win.
So if that is true, why would Kim even think about keeping Sabrina and Chelsea? Obviously so she doesn't piss more people off.
In previous seasons, powerful players a.k.a Russell have lost multiple times because they made up harsh lies to their fellow castaways.  Now Kim has not been harsh in any way but has actually been very nice to the others but she has lied to their faces.  To bitter jury members including Troy, Kat and Jay who thought they were close to Kim, they might swoop down to such a low level to even vote for Christina or Alicia for the win.
Right now it is clear Kim is in the final four with her immunity idol and my guess would be she either decides to turn on Sabrina or rally the girls against Christina.  After that, if Kim doesn't win immunity I can easily see Alicia trying to gain up against Kim thinking she would win the money.  The only struggle would be convincing Chelsea to join her.  If Chelsea was smart and wanted to win she would join Alicia, vote off Kim and Chelsea could easily win the game.  Unfortunately for her, she has grown so close with Kim that it would be too horrible to turn on her the very last day.  Therefore the final three should probably be Kim, Chelsea and Alicia.  With that Kim will easily win the game with Chelsea in second and Alicia in third.

A One Man Show

Now with only seven castaways left, one man stands.  The women have annihilated Jonas, Michael, Jay, Leif and Troy one by one.  Tarzan now stands alone but will he be the next one to go home?

In the previous episode, Troy seemed to almost make it by for targeting Christina who is obviously the woman on the outs.  She nearly survived the vote when it turned out to be 4 for Troy 3 for Christina and 1 for Chelsea.  

Tarzan may actually be in a good position at this point because for the remaining six women, it seems who ever it is to be the first person to turn on the others will be the one to get to the end.  When there is only one man left who has an extra vote in hand would probably be the perfect time to turn on another woman.  

Troy was very smart in his last episode when he decided he would try to get inside of Kat's head.  He was very successful because she hated being seen as a follower and felt like she would rather turn on power house Kim and get voted out than make it to the end as a follower.  This is making Kat a loose cannon and she will probably be willing to vote for anyone at this point.  

Tarzan needs to egg on what Troy had started earlier.  If he breaks Kat, she may have the power to pull over Christina and another woman to vote Kim out.  

That doesn't seem to be what the previews show though.  In the previews, Sabrina seems to be gunning for Kat because she doesn't trust her anymore and Kat is talking about voting for Sabrina.  The ironic thing is when they are saying these things they are talking to Kim.  This proves that Kim and Chelsea still hold all of the power in this episode. 

My prediction is that Tarzan will pull what Chris from Vanuatu did for a while and let the women turn on each other.  He will either win immunity or dodge the bullet and it will turn out to be either Sabrina, Kat, or Christina going done on Wednesday.

Also, an important note for this episode would be Kim still has the idol in hand!  This guarantees herself to make it to at least the next round or to the final five if she saves it.  In my opinion if Sabrina, Kat, Christina, or Alicia want a shot at winning the MUST turn on Chelsea and Kim now!

Does Kim Have Complete Control Over the Game?

My answer to that question is she already has.  At the beginning of this season, Kim was very much a background player following the lead of either Alicia or Sabrina but was secretly making decisions with Chelsea on what to do.  Good thing for both Kim and Chelsea, hiding their power early on in the game has let the seize control over the majority of the players.
If you think about it, Kim and Chelsea have control over Sabrina, Kat and possibly Alicia and Christina.  They also have a great influence on Jay, Troyzan and Michael.  When you are in the final 11 and have control over 9 of those votes, that easily makes you the most powerful player in the game.
In the previews for tonights episode it warns us a power player will get played.  Now who could that possibly be?  At this point pretty much anyone but Leif.  By power player they could mean anything from physical players: Jay, Kim, Chelsea, Michael and Troyzan.  Players with power: Kim and Chelsea along with the rest of the girls and new salani tribe.  Or a loose cannon player: Alicia, Christina and Greg (Tarzan).  I can't really tell you what is going to happen tonight...

Kim and Chelsea have two options either to keep all the girls around and either target the strong guys Michael, Troyzan, and Jay or the crazy guy Greg.  Their other option would be to turn on one of their own and vote out Christina or Alicia to work on destroying the new manano tribe.
Troyzan also has a lot of power now that he has found the hidden immunity idol.  He he ends up suspecting a big move from the women against the men he can easily use it to blind side one of the girls.
Who ever goes home tonight will definitely shock me because I have no idea who it will be.

Merge Analysis

In this season, Jeff has introduced a very early merge on the day 16 and at the end of episode 6 after Colton's unexpected evacuation.  With the power house player gone, the remaining 12 castaways all seem to be on a very even playing field.  Now I wanted to analyze the last 12 standing and I hope it will help you guys decide who you think is going to win.

THE DARK HORSE: Once again I would say the dark horse player would be Kat.  In these last two episodes she has fallen to the background but she remains in a very safe position in the game.  She has an alliance with all the girls and she is apart of the physically dominate Salani tribe.  When the game becomes very cut throat Kat may either go very far or go home very quick.  Kat has a loud mouth that can easily get her into some trouble.  If she stays quiet and tries to get herself closer to the dominate alliance than she will have a shot at winning, if she reunites with the dangerous players, Alicia, then Kat is going to find her self on the jury.

DOMINATE ALLIANCE: The dominate alliance consists of power house players including Troyzan, Jay, Kim, and Chelsea.  This seems to be the perfect alliance to be apart of consisting of all likely winners.  If any of you have read the Hunger Games, this would be a parallel group of what would be considered the careers.  Perfect players to win the game.  They are the strongest, they are the smartest, and each one of them is very likable and would be hard to beat at a final tribal council.  The only way this group can lose is if a Katniss type of player is able to outsmart them all.  Who could be a game changing player who can destroy this alliance?

POSSIBLE GAME CHANGERS: A game changer has to be gutsy brave, and be willing to cut anyones throats.  Who could that be? I would say the three players in position to do that would be Christina, Tarzan, and Sabrina.  Tarzan is shown fighting against Jonas in the previews saying he is on his own.  My guess is that he is still trying to hunt down Christina but there is still a possibility that he may try to turn on The dominate alliance.  For Christina, she feels like she has already become the outsider of the women's alliance making it seem that it would be easiest for her to just join the men.  If she gains up with the right group of players and if she ha a keen eye sharp enough to detect the secret dominate alliance she can be the one to take them down.  Now Sabrina used to be the women's alliance leader but sense the tribal swap she has faded into the background and it seems Kim and Chelsea have decided to ditch her.  Eventually I believe that Sabrina will be able to catch on that those girls have been making deal with the men and if she finds out fast enough she can put in end to their group.

SLEEPERS: A sleeper is a player who has been in the background most of the season but still has an opportunity to do something huge.  The sleepers I would identify would be Jonas and Michael.  Jonas I already believe is slowly put him self in the lime light.  He has taken of the Manano group after Colton dropped out and him and Christina seem to be a sharp pair with Leif by their sides.  Michael on the other hand has been able to chill out for the majority of the season except for when his closes ally and fellow rooster, Matt, was voted out.  If Michael plays his cards right he can get himself in with Troyzan and Jay which may lead to a blindside for Kim and Chelsea.

WHO IS ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK?: I believe the first to go in the merge will either be Tarzan, Christina, or Alicia.  Tarzan has already isolated himself from everyone else in the game which I don't think is the best idea.  Christina has always been an outsider with the women and if the men are still together and the women still hate Christina, she is an easy first boot.  Now Alicia... Throughout the game she has hardly even thought about the possibility of getting voted out.  She became so comfortable with her position that she openly mocked Christina and told her she pretty much hated her.  Smooth move Alicia... Now everyone saw her do and is disgusted with how immature she is and she doesn't have Colton by her side to save her.  Alicia is also a suspect to have Colton's idol even though we all know she doesn't have it.  If Kim and Chelsea along with Kat decide they don't need Alicia any more and if they truly feel that she has the idol, you may see Alicia become one of the first members of the jury.

MY WINNER: My winner would have to be Kim at the moment, everything seems to be going perfectly for her with her dominate alliance, her physical dominance, her likability, and the fact that she has an idol and only Chelsea knows about it.  I think Kim will be able to control Chelsea and her alliance for the majority of the game and may be able to use her idol to sneak herself into the final three.

Will Colton Ever Go Home?

In these first five episodes Colton has created himself as one of the most evil villains in all time history.  He has gained control of both tribes he has been on and from the looks of things he has no one brave enough to vote him out.  But I can see an uprising in the Manano tribe starting with Christina.
Alicia and Colton have become best buddies on their tribe and Alicia thinks that now that she has backstabbed Monica, Christina will be the next boot guaranteeing herself in the merge.  This gives Colton and Alicia the green light to take out all their anger and pick on outsider Christina.  Most likely Christina will begin to scramble and beg Jonas, Greg (I will not call him Tarzan), and Leif to save her from Colton and Alicia and to ultimately move the target from her back to another she will reveal the all women's alliance that Alicia is apart of.  Conflict will DEFINITELY ignite in the Manano tribe tonight.
In previews, it shows some one possibly getting injured in the episode.  Who this is? I have NO idea.  Maybe this is Colton finally leaving the show, or possibly Greg's leg hurting him.  In the previous episode Greg was seen wearing a boot on his foot.  So if some one gets injured, the best bet is Greg.

My Prediction For the Night

Episode 4 of Survivor One World is going to be airing tonight! Multiple castaways and Jeff Probst have been hyping this episode up as the most epic to be seen yet!
My prediction? Well at the moment the most vulnerable players consist of Monica, Christina, Bill and Queen Colton.
At the moment Christina seems to have faded back into the background and have lost her place as the most vulnerable Salani member when Alicia said she would rather vote off Monica in an interview.  But Monica has lead her tribe through a victory and has been a good sub-leader to Sabrina.
Now on the Manono tribe Colton and Bill have built a strong rivalry and are ready to cut each other's throats.  Bill is on the outs as the misfit alliance has taken over the tribes and the lead "rooster" was voted out.
When Jeff and many others say that the tribal council will be shocking I can't really say how any of those four being voted off would be shocking.  Except for one instance.

Knowing that Colton was supposed to play the hidden immunity idol at the last tribal council but then refused to the men HAVE to be angry at him.  I know I was after that tribal council but it was a smart play.  Now the men may begin to scheme against him to make sure the idol is flushed knowing that he has all the power in their tribe.  The guys will possibly rally up enough votes to vote Colton off but he will sense a rebellion and play the idol.  Meaning only one vote would be cast against Bill and he would be sent packing.