Merge Analysis

In this season, Jeff has introduced a very early merge on the day 16 and at the end of episode 6 after Colton's unexpected evacuation.  With the power house player gone, the remaining 12 castaways all seem to be on a very even playing field.  Now I wanted to analyze the last 12 standing and I hope it will help you guys decide who you think is going to win.

THE DARK HORSE: Once again I would say the dark horse player would be Kat.  In these last two episodes she has fallen to the background but she remains in a very safe position in the game.  She has an alliance with all the girls and she is apart of the physically dominate Salani tribe.  When the game becomes very cut throat Kat may either go very far or go home very quick.  Kat has a loud mouth that can easily get her into some trouble.  If she stays quiet and tries to get herself closer to the dominate alliance than she will have a shot at winning, if she reunites with the dangerous players, Alicia, then Kat is going to find her self on the jury.

DOMINATE ALLIANCE: The dominate alliance consists of power house players including Troyzan, Jay, Kim, and Chelsea.  This seems to be the perfect alliance to be apart of consisting of all likely winners.  If any of you have read the Hunger Games, this would be a parallel group of what would be considered the careers.  Perfect players to win the game.  They are the strongest, they are the smartest, and each one of them is very likable and would be hard to beat at a final tribal council.  The only way this group can lose is if a Katniss type of player is able to outsmart them all.  Who could be a game changing player who can destroy this alliance?

POSSIBLE GAME CHANGERS: A game changer has to be gutsy brave, and be willing to cut anyones throats.  Who could that be? I would say the three players in position to do that would be Christina, Tarzan, and Sabrina.  Tarzan is shown fighting against Jonas in the previews saying he is on his own.  My guess is that he is still trying to hunt down Christina but there is still a possibility that he may try to turn on The dominate alliance.  For Christina, she feels like she has already become the outsider of the women's alliance making it seem that it would be easiest for her to just join the men.  If she gains up with the right group of players and if she ha a keen eye sharp enough to detect the secret dominate alliance she can be the one to take them down.  Now Sabrina used to be the women's alliance leader but sense the tribal swap she has faded into the background and it seems Kim and Chelsea have decided to ditch her.  Eventually I believe that Sabrina will be able to catch on that those girls have been making deal with the men and if she finds out fast enough she can put in end to their group.

SLEEPERS: A sleeper is a player who has been in the background most of the season but still has an opportunity to do something huge.  The sleepers I would identify would be Jonas and Michael.  Jonas I already believe is slowly put him self in the lime light.  He has taken of the Manano group after Colton dropped out and him and Christina seem to be a sharp pair with Leif by their sides.  Michael on the other hand has been able to chill out for the majority of the season except for when his closes ally and fellow rooster, Matt, was voted out.  If Michael plays his cards right he can get himself in with Troyzan and Jay which may lead to a blindside for Kim and Chelsea.

WHO IS ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK?: I believe the first to go in the merge will either be Tarzan, Christina, or Alicia.  Tarzan has already isolated himself from everyone else in the game which I don't think is the best idea.  Christina has always been an outsider with the women and if the men are still together and the women still hate Christina, she is an easy first boot.  Now Alicia... Throughout the game she has hardly even thought about the possibility of getting voted out.  She became so comfortable with her position that she openly mocked Christina and told her she pretty much hated her.  Smooth move Alicia... Now everyone saw her do and is disgusted with how immature she is and she doesn't have Colton by her side to save her.  Alicia is also a suspect to have Colton's idol even though we all know she doesn't have it.  If Kim and Chelsea along with Kat decide they don't need Alicia any more and if they truly feel that she has the idol, you may see Alicia become one of the first members of the jury.

MY WINNER: My winner would have to be Kim at the moment, everything seems to be going perfectly for her with her dominate alliance, her physical dominance, her likability, and the fact that she has an idol and only Chelsea knows about it.  I think Kim will be able to control Chelsea and her alliance for the majority of the game and may be able to use her idol to sneak herself into the final three.

Will Colton Ever Go Home?

In these first five episodes Colton has created himself as one of the most evil villains in all time history.  He has gained control of both tribes he has been on and from the looks of things he has no one brave enough to vote him out.  But I can see an uprising in the Manano tribe starting with Christina.
Alicia and Colton have become best buddies on their tribe and Alicia thinks that now that she has backstabbed Monica, Christina will be the next boot guaranteeing herself in the merge.  This gives Colton and Alicia the green light to take out all their anger and pick on outsider Christina.  Most likely Christina will begin to scramble and beg Jonas, Greg (I will not call him Tarzan), and Leif to save her from Colton and Alicia and to ultimately move the target from her back to another she will reveal the all women's alliance that Alicia is apart of.  Conflict will DEFINITELY ignite in the Manano tribe tonight.
In previews, it shows some one possibly getting injured in the episode.  Who this is? I have NO idea.  Maybe this is Colton finally leaving the show, or possibly Greg's leg hurting him.  In the previous episode Greg was seen wearing a boot on his foot.  So if some one gets injured, the best bet is Greg.

My Prediction For the Night

Episode 4 of Survivor One World is going to be airing tonight! Multiple castaways and Jeff Probst have been hyping this episode up as the most epic to be seen yet!
My prediction? Well at the moment the most vulnerable players consist of Monica, Christina, Bill and Queen Colton.
At the moment Christina seems to have faded back into the background and have lost her place as the most vulnerable Salani member when Alicia said she would rather vote off Monica in an interview.  But Monica has lead her tribe through a victory and has been a good sub-leader to Sabrina.
Now on the Manono tribe Colton and Bill have built a strong rivalry and are ready to cut each other's throats.  Bill is on the outs as the misfit alliance has taken over the tribes and the lead "rooster" was voted out.
When Jeff and many others say that the tribal council will be shocking I can't really say how any of those four being voted off would be shocking.  Except for one instance.

Knowing that Colton was supposed to play the hidden immunity idol at the last tribal council but then refused to the men HAVE to be angry at him.  I know I was after that tribal council but it was a smart play.  Now the men may begin to scheme against him to make sure the idol is flushed knowing that he has all the power in their tribe.  The guys will possibly rally up enough votes to vote Colton off but he will sense a rebellion and play the idol.  Meaning only one vote would be cast against Bill and he would be sent packing.